According to @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026), the market is pricing just a 5% chance of a Fed rate cut in January, down from 17% a week ago and 22% a month ago, indicating sharply reduced near-term easing expectations; source: @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026). He reports the US unemployment rate ended the year at 4.4%, down from a revised 4.5% in November, and year-over-year wage growth at 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, which he says effectively eliminates any chance of a January cut; source: @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026). For crypto traders focused on BTC and ETH, the actionable takeaway is that January easing odds are minimal, so positioning and risk management should align to a no-cut baseline into the upcoming FOMC; source: @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026).